Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 14.601886 16.554468 18.779928 21.527976 24.863437 28.824545 33.951622
2025-06-01 11.988685 14.402721 17.392798 21.447737 26.932528 34.296606 45.310109
2025-06-08 10.288217 12.807255 16.094234 20.832981 27.735606 37.862121 54.795647
2025-06-15 9.272032 11.875533 15.419545 20.797156 29.149735 42.425957 67.129726
2025-06-22 8.214568 10.730485 14.258224 19.811038 28.853439 44.132930 75.108240
2025-06-29 7.337380 9.733171 13.171708 18.745377 28.179866 44.964292 81.646005
2025-07-06 6.700582 9.014489 12.407673 18.061073 27.990327 46.567603 90.390923
2025-07-13 6.806145 9.385141 13.313623 20.191570 33.126122 59.784511 133.255654
2025-07-20 6.584806 9.234605 13.378566 20.892759 35.745287 68.691654 171.780162
2025-07-27 6.148361 8.711584 12.785297 20.334935 35.736353 71.581744 194.002894
2025-08-03 5.977270 8.592874 12.846130 20.979923 38.360483 81.860435 252.771368
2025-08-10 5.659692 8.212793 12.426586 20.653098 38.786900 86.509109 294.334870
2025-08-17 5.357233 7.850812 12.031611 20.376056 39.402005 92.356779 352.740676
2025-08-24 5.110809 7.566020 11.750082 20.296579 40.497744 100.286167 439.190185
2025-08-31 4.818752 7.184175 11.261385 19.726874 40.259982 103.842055 506.747717
2025-09-07 4.626289 6.959493 11.040177 19.693637 41.405093 112.851977 644.324282
2025-09-14 4.335147 6.547466 10.441801 18.778379 40.017450 111.903219 690.393263
2025-09-21 4.056196 6.143323 9.834077 17.787868 38.274235 109.034455 712.910731
2025-09-28 3.841405 5.841666 9.402328 17.151014 37.431855 109.629345 784.197584
2025-10-05 3.952070 6.119254 10.093027 19.131715 44.614065 149.588216 1775.271647
2025-10-12 3.899954 6.100552 10.204452 19.782305 48.013447 175.606266 3120.555966
2025-10-19 3.729873 5.857389 9.850928 19.264785 47.503831 180.041659 3867.486199
2025-10-26 3.681551 5.835875 9.943451 19.863135 50.930785 211.406170 8049.071746